Afghanistan's ceasefire celebrations raise hopes for peace

KABUL: Extraordinary scenes of Afghan Taliban and safety forces spontaneously celebrating a ancient ceasefire showed many warring parties on either side are fed up with fighting, analysts say, elevating hopes for peace in a rustic ravaged by way of battle.

The jubilant reaction to the primary truce between the Afghan government and the Taliban over the Eid vacation took many by way of marvel, even supposing observers warn that an end to the just about 17-year conflict is still some distance off.

"It is difficult to predict what the next move might be, but the spell has been broken," Afghan political analyst Ghulam Sakhi Ehsani instructed AFP.

"From all the photos and videos, it seems the foot soldiers from both sides are tired of war."

In scenes impossible only a few days ago, Taliban warring parties and safety forces lengthy locked in a reputedly intractable conflict were noticed hugging and taking selfies in combination across the country.

Civilians, who have borne the brunt of the bloody battle, also flocked to greet the insurgents as they entered city areas that they in most cases seek advice from best to attack, together with the capital Kabul.

Fighters on either side of the conflict expressed hopes for the remarkable ceasefire to continue.

"We have held the ceasefire well so far," Taliban commander Baba instructed AFP all over celebrations within the eastern province of Nangarhar on Saturday.

"Everyone is tired of war and if our leaders order us to continue the ceasefire, we will hold it forever," he said.

But the sight of its warring parties openly mingling with safety forces and civilians seemed to alarm the Taliban's leaders, who ordered their males again to their posts.

Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, said the Taliban leadership can have feared that "more days without fighting could convince the rank and file that peace is better than a war".

"A little bit of freedom is good but too much, why go to paradise," a Western diplomat instructed AFP, regarding the virgin angels the Muslim holy book, the Koran, says await good Muslims, particularly martyrs, once they die.

Two suicide attacks in Nangarhar, each claimed by way of the Islamic State staff -- which used to be not a part of the ceasefire -- marred the in a different way peaceful Eid vacation that follows the holy month of Ramadan.

But the fact that the truce held and used to be welcomed on either side instructed the "dynamics of this conflict may have changed", Afghanistan Analysts Network co-director Kate Clark instructed AFP.

"Once there's a recognition of common humanity, that everyone is Muslim, that people in the cities were celebrating Eid as in the villages, that it's really nice to have an ice cream with someone, hopefully it becomes more difficult to kill them," she said.

Kugelman said the ceasefire had supplied "a major building block" for the government's efforts to barter a peace care for the Taliban, which have up to now failed.

"While reconciliation still feels like a remote prospect, it now feels at least a bit more of a possibility," he said.

Initial euphoria over the ceasefire briefly became to sadness and anger amongst many Afghans when the Taliban resumed fighting on Monday.

While analysts had expected the Taliban to return to the battlefield, some other people saw it as a betrayal.

"Death to the Taliban and their backers. Once again they have shown that they love shedding the blood of innocent Afghans," Madena Momad posted on Facebook.

What comes next within the lengthy conflict is unclear.

There has lengthy been secret back-channel discussion between interlocutors on either side of the battle, and direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban were held in Pakistan in July 2015, but were briefly derailed.

Analysts say even if the Taliban may well be convinced to offer formal talks some other take a look at -- they now refuse to barter with the Afghan government, which they see as illegitimate -- it might still take years to succeed in and then put into effect an settlement.

There isn't any roadmap and neither side seems to be transparent on what a post-conflict Afghanistan would in fact look like or has identified their "red lines" in talks.

President Ashraf Ghani announced over the weekend that the government's eight-day ceasefire, due to expire on Tuesday, would be prolonged for some other 10 days.

But while Taliban leaders hailed the three-day truce a good fortune and an indication in their "full control" over their warring parties, they refused Ghani's request for an extension.

The government's transfer might purchase the president extra time to determine the right way to keep the momentum going.

"Ghani's only option is to keep trying for peace," Kugelman said. "The war can't be won militarily so he'll need to make any and all possible efforts to secure some type of negotiated end to the war."

Ghani's February offer of peace talks with the Taliban, considered to be one of the vital complete plans ever introduced by way of an Afghan government, used to be neglected by way of the militants, which went directly to release their annual spring offensive.

The insurgents have again and again demanded direct discussion with the United States, which Washington has refused, and the withdrawal of foreign troops.

But remaining month the Pentagon said that senior Taliban officials have been secretly negotiating with Afghan officials on a possible ceasefire.

"This weekend was a very strong indication that if the pieces fall together in the right way there can be a constructive dialogue," some other Western diplomat said.