BEIRUT: Seven years of conflict and massive displacement have redrawn Syria's demographic map, erecting borders between the rustic's ethnic, spiritual, and political communities that will likely be hard to erase.
Displaced Syrians, analysts, and rights defenders have described to AFP a divided nation the place regime fighters have been pushed out, minorities stick closer in combination and communities usually have change into more homogenous.
The demographic reshuffle is more likely to final, they say, with around 11 million Syrians displaced both in another country or inside the nation and unsure if they are able to pass home.
Abu Musab al-Mukasar, a 25-year-old riot fighter, doubts he's going to ever go back to his birthplace in Homs town, now totally held through Syrian troops.
"I could never go back to regime territory -- or live side by side with Alawites," he says, relating to the spiritual minority sect of President Bashar al-Assad.
The minority-led executive has dominated a Sunni-majority population for decades, but Abu Musab says the rifts are actually deeper than ever.
"Of course I'll tell my son all this, so he'll hate the people that did this to us, too," says the fighter, contacted through AFP on an internet messaging platform.
Abu Musab, a Sunni, first left Homs for rural riot zones close by in a 2014 evacuation deal.
Last week, another negotiated withdrawal saw him, his spouse, three-year-old son and infant daughter bussed north to Idlib province.
Idlib has change into a dumping floor for masses of 1000's of Sunni rebels and their households transferred from spaces recaptured through the regime.
"The demographics changed without us even noticing. The country has been divided," says Abu Musab.
The fighter described the wide outlines of what he saw as Syria's new sectarian map: "The north is Sunni, the northeast is Kurdish, those in (coastal) Latakia, Tartus, and Homs are Alawite and Shiite Muslim."
Syrian rebels pushed Alawite and Christian minorities out as a result of they had been perceived as Assad loyalists, says Fabrice Balanche, knowledgeable on Syria's population and politics.
Before the conflict erupted in 2011, Sunni Arabs made up 65 percent of the population, Kurds about 15 percent, and all spiritual minorities about 20 percent.
The regime has misplaced territory, but the consolidation of Alawites, Shiites, and Christians around it has actually granted it a stronger base, according to Balanche.
"Today, 70 percent of Syria's population is in regime territory, and more than a third of them are minorities," he says.
Some of those shifts had been through population swaps, together with the arguable "Four Towns Deal" that tied the destiny of Sunni-majority Madaya and Zabadani to the Shiite villages of Fuaa and Kafraya.
Since 2015, 1000's had been transferred from Fuaa and Kafraya to Damascus, in change for identical numbers leaving Madaya and Zabadani for Syria's north.
In a 2017 AFP interview, Assad admitted that displacement was once "compulsory" but brief.
But minorities say they cannot believe going home.
Abbas Abbas, 36, fled Kafraya years ago for Sayyida Zeinab, a neighbourhood near Damascus that hosts a shrine revered through fellow Shiites.
"Most people from Kafraya don't want to go back. At least I'm not afraid of being kidnapped here," he tells AFP.
In the past, Kafrayans blended with different villagers. "But eight years into Syria's war, things are different," says the sound engineer.
He expects the remainder 8,000 residents of Fuaa and Kafraya to be forced out "sooner or later."
Not some distance from Abbas's estranged homeland, another communal battle is unfolding.
A Turkish-led attack this year displaced over 137,000 other people from Kurdish-majority Afrin to close by regime zones, or even farther to Kurdish spaces in the northeast.
Some in their homes now space different displaced. Around 35,000 of those bussed out of the onetime riot bastion of Eastern Ghouta near Damascus have resettled in Afrin.
Their homes both destroyed or occupied, Afrin's authentic residents see go back as a far off dream.
"I'm not optimistic. The more time passes, the more entrenched the demographic changes are," says Ahmad Yussef, an educational who fled Afrin.
Kurdish government accuse Turkey of ethnic repopulation, and observers say Ankara needs to resettle the three.5 million Syrian refugees in its territory into Afrin.
The accusations pass each tactics: Syrian Arabs accuse Kurdish warring parties of stopping them from returning to their northern hometowns after ousting jihadists.
Widespread destruction and sophisticated legislation on belongings restitution have compounded fears of permanent displacement.
And regardless of calls to include transitional justice in a political resolution, actual reconciliation stays not going, says Diana Semaan of Amnesty International.
"Because there won't be a truth commission or public acknowledgement by the government towards the Sunnis or armed groups towards Alawites or Christians, there will be no accountability or justice," Semaan says.
"This is why Syrian society will be polarised and disintegrated, and why all the sects will turn internally."
Displaced Syrians, analysts, and rights defenders have described to AFP a divided nation the place regime fighters have been pushed out, minorities stick closer in combination and communities usually have change into more homogenous.
The demographic reshuffle is more likely to final, they say, with around 11 million Syrians displaced both in another country or inside the nation and unsure if they are able to pass home.
Abu Musab al-Mukasar, a 25-year-old riot fighter, doubts he's going to ever go back to his birthplace in Homs town, now totally held through Syrian troops.
"I could never go back to regime territory -- or live side by side with Alawites," he says, relating to the spiritual minority sect of President Bashar al-Assad.
The minority-led executive has dominated a Sunni-majority population for decades, but Abu Musab says the rifts are actually deeper than ever.
"Of course I'll tell my son all this, so he'll hate the people that did this to us, too," says the fighter, contacted through AFP on an internet messaging platform.
Abu Musab, a Sunni, first left Homs for rural riot zones close by in a 2014 evacuation deal.
Last week, another negotiated withdrawal saw him, his spouse, three-year-old son and infant daughter bussed north to Idlib province.
Idlib has change into a dumping floor for masses of 1000's of Sunni rebels and their households transferred from spaces recaptured through the regime.
"The demographics changed without us even noticing. The country has been divided," says Abu Musab.
The fighter described the wide outlines of what he saw as Syria's new sectarian map: "The north is Sunni, the northeast is Kurdish, those in (coastal) Latakia, Tartus, and Homs are Alawite and Shiite Muslim."
Syrian rebels pushed Alawite and Christian minorities out as a result of they had been perceived as Assad loyalists, says Fabrice Balanche, knowledgeable on Syria's population and politics.
Before the conflict erupted in 2011, Sunni Arabs made up 65 percent of the population, Kurds about 15 percent, and all spiritual minorities about 20 percent.
The regime has misplaced territory, but the consolidation of Alawites, Shiites, and Christians around it has actually granted it a stronger base, according to Balanche.
"Today, 70 percent of Syria's population is in regime territory, and more than a third of them are minorities," he says.
Some of those shifts had been through population swaps, together with the arguable "Four Towns Deal" that tied the destiny of Sunni-majority Madaya and Zabadani to the Shiite villages of Fuaa and Kafraya.
Since 2015, 1000's had been transferred from Fuaa and Kafraya to Damascus, in change for identical numbers leaving Madaya and Zabadani for Syria's north.
In a 2017 AFP interview, Assad admitted that displacement was once "compulsory" but brief.
But minorities say they cannot believe going home.
Abbas Abbas, 36, fled Kafraya years ago for Sayyida Zeinab, a neighbourhood near Damascus that hosts a shrine revered through fellow Shiites.
"Most people from Kafraya don't want to go back. At least I'm not afraid of being kidnapped here," he tells AFP.
In the past, Kafrayans blended with different villagers. "But eight years into Syria's war, things are different," says the sound engineer.
He expects the remainder 8,000 residents of Fuaa and Kafraya to be forced out "sooner or later."
Not some distance from Abbas's estranged homeland, another communal battle is unfolding.
A Turkish-led attack this year displaced over 137,000 other people from Kurdish-majority Afrin to close by regime zones, or even farther to Kurdish spaces in the northeast.
Some in their homes now space different displaced. Around 35,000 of those bussed out of the onetime riot bastion of Eastern Ghouta near Damascus have resettled in Afrin.
Their homes both destroyed or occupied, Afrin's authentic residents see go back as a far off dream.
"I'm not optimistic. The more time passes, the more entrenched the demographic changes are," says Ahmad Yussef, an educational who fled Afrin.
Kurdish government accuse Turkey of ethnic repopulation, and observers say Ankara needs to resettle the three.5 million Syrian refugees in its territory into Afrin.
The accusations pass each tactics: Syrian Arabs accuse Kurdish warring parties of stopping them from returning to their northern hometowns after ousting jihadists.
Widespread destruction and sophisticated legislation on belongings restitution have compounded fears of permanent displacement.
And regardless of calls to include transitional justice in a political resolution, actual reconciliation stays not going, says Diana Semaan of Amnesty International.
"Because there won't be a truth commission or public acknowledgement by the government towards the Sunnis or armed groups towards Alawites or Christians, there will be no accountability or justice," Semaan says.
"This is why Syrian society will be polarised and disintegrated, and why all the sects will turn internally."
War, displacement reshuffle Syria's demographic map
![War, displacement reshuffle Syria's demographic map]()
Reviewed by Kailash
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May 25, 2018
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